Kālā forecasting - aneiai hoʻolālā kila

Kālā forecasting - heʻano papa hana no ka pono o ka hana i ho'ākāka 'epekema no ka i ka ho omaulia ana i kumu kālā nā hoailona. I ka papa kuhikuhiE ki ina hana like nā econometric forecasting, makemakika hōʻikeʻia nani, trending a me ka mākaukau.

I ka hoʻohana 'ana i makemakika hōʻikeʻia nani me ke kumu no ka ho a pau e pono ai hoʻoholo-ana ÷ hoohui laina iaaiey. No hoi hoʻohana Ke Ana Hoʻohālike amo a me ka mea ulana pukapuka.

Kālā forecasting komo ai i ka hoʻohana 'ana o oicyenoaaiiie forecasting, ma muli o ka walaʻauʻana me nā loina o nā' ikepili helu, a oicyenoaaiiie kumumanaʻo. Ma nā hua'ōlelo, ka i ka ho omaulia ana o na pale ua lawe mai ma luna o ka muli o ana helu kiko'î a hoʻohana i kekahi a oi o ka oicyenoaaiiie aiaiiuo i e ia i loko o ka mooolelo like kumumea ka heluna i ka olelo wanana a hualoaʻa. Keʻano o ka ua kālailai nā hoailona, e lawe i ka mooolelo kumumea i i ka nui hopena ma luna o ke kālā keʻano o ka hanaʻana.

No ka mea? Ieoaeunoai o econometric Ke Ana Hoʻohālike hoʻohana regression Ka Ikepili, e leie aku e quantify na averages, a i waho i loko o ka hoʻokele waiwai i loko o ka waihona ipu wā. E hoʻoikaika i ka pololei o ka hopena i loaa i loko o nā kiʻina hana o forecasting ke ki kālā nā hoailona e e inā ma ka akamai koho.

Hana o ke akamai manaʻo hoʻohana no ka hoʻololi kemikala a me ka aaioee o makemakika manaʻo o ka poe akamai i - akamai ma kekahi kumuhana. I ka laulā o kēia iaoia hilinaʻi nui ma luna o ka mākaukau a me ka professionalism. Ke kēla paha e lawa ke kiekie pololei. Wale kekahi drawback i keia iaoia - subjectivism, oa kaukaʻi ma ka "manaʻo kaumaha, a kilo" akamai, i kekahi manawa, hiki ole e hoʻokuleana i ka naauao hoakaka. Ma ka hana pono, i ka ike ki ina hana o like me ka kanaka akamai ka loiloi 'ana.

Kālā forecasting makemake e manao ole i ka piha, ina ka au, aole ia i emi iho i kekahi papa hana i komo ai kaukaʻi a loaa, a lilo mai ia aʻe e like me ka manawa. Aia nōʻeluaʻano o nā mea kū i - ke au o ka ikaika ka ulu ana i nā hualoaʻa mai paʻa loli a? Aiaiiuie laina au, ka hoʻolako 'Ikepili o na hou ia a eia i loko o loa hua'ōlelo. I ka papa kuhikuhiE drawback o keia iaoia - he piha 'ole no ka helu wehewehe, a me ka waiwai' ē aʻe.

Kālā olelo wanana a hiki ke hana hoʻohana ana helu loina i lawe mai me ka kekahi regularity. I nā mea hana o ana helu forecasting mea au regression kŘkohu. E koho i ka poe initially i loiloi 'ana ma ke kulanui i nā kānaka i loaʻa ana helu waihona ipu, a laila, extrapolate kū i ke au no kekahi mau' manawa wā mawaena.

Ei ae mai, e noonoo hiki a pau nā koho e hoʻoikaika 'i ke kālā'ōnaehana ma lalo o kekahi nā mea e hiki wale mai o ka papa hana, ka waiwaiʻahahui a me ke kuai kulana. Kālā forecasting paha e pōkole, a laila, All makemakika hoʻomaulia e noonoo pono i ka wā o kekahi makahiki, meakino-makahiki (3-5 makahiki) a me ka lōʻihi manawa (ma luna o 5 makahiki). Kēiaʻano o ka forecasting ua lawe mai ma luna o ekolu pae aneiai (aupuni, ia kenekoa a me ka hemahema hoi pāʻoihanaʻahahui).

National 'ilikai hoʻolako i ka helu i lilo ka waiwai kālā o ka moku'āina, e kuhikuhi i ke ala e hiki aku no ko lakou ulu ana. I ka hopena o kēia wānana 'o ka compilation o ka moku'āina Bedroom.

Kālā forecasting ia kenekoa 'ilikai mea i' ano like me ka mea ei ainaʻilikai. Ma ka nui o oicyenoaaiiie ē aʻei forecasting mea he kālā'ōnaehana, a he loko o ka ulu ana o ka mau o ka hana kūpono 'ana a me ke kahua o ka waiwai no ka wā e hiki mai. No hoi, ma keia ke kahua, ka wehewehena o ka kou akamai i makemake hōʻoia i ka kālā kumupaʻa o ke kulana o ka hana, e like me ka pono me ka creditworthiness a me ka solvency.