Social forecasting: Ka Ikepili ki ina hana like

Social olelo wanana a - keia mea kekahi o ka loa pilikia ano o methodological noiʻi ka manaʻolana 'ia o keʻano o ka hanaʻana a me kaʻike manaʻo. I ka maoli sciences olelo wanana a ua hoʻohana 'ia e hoomakaukau ai no ka hopena o ka kŰia. No ka laʻana, no ka mea ka loaʻaʻana o ka pahiki kiʻekiʻe o ka ÷ la a me ka huaʻi pele paha e e lohe, a evacuated mawaho o ka lakou mau ?? eoi?. Ke kumuhana Ke 'āpana o ka lawelawe forecasting i ka nohona keʻano o ka hanaʻana, i ka hope o ka i hiki ke loli, no laila, i ka waiwai o kēia' ano o ka hana noiʻi kuanaʻike -ʻaʻole wale nō i loko o ka hoomakaukau ana no ka wā e hiki mai kūʻiʻo, akā, i ka hiki i ka ÷ ike ia.

Ma ka hana pono, i ka i kēia kaiapili forecasting ki ina hana like i hoʻohana:

Hana o ke akamai loiloi

Kēia iaoia ninoieo i loko o ka ohi a me ka hoʻopaʻa 'ana o ia mau loea, manao ma na ka manaʻolana' ia o ka? Anoee kaiapili kŰia. ʻO ka hoʻokōʻana o keia alanui me ka nānā 'ana i ka' oihana akamai pono häʻawi mai ai iä ia nīnau a me nā Replies me ka manaʻoe hana e like ai.

I ka papa hana o kahi e olelo ai o Delphi - he ano o ke ano o ke akamai manaʻo - Ua wehewehe aku ma kekahi luna 'noaia o ka ninaninau poe akamai: e hoʻopau i ka aoao o ka pae ma ka manao ana o kela mea keia mea akamai, i ole hōʻike i ka poe akamai i na inoa o ka palapala hōʻoia no nā mea i paneʻia'ē aʻe, kēlā kū kaʻawale i mai ia wa iho. Next o ka Ikepili o ka pane a me ka wehewehena o ka Hoʻohaku kūlana. Hope i nā mea i paneʻia loaa ka ia anamanaʻo, i nā manaʻo hoʻopiʻi kū'ē o ka poe akamai, kona manaʻo oko mai o ka nui, a me ka hiki i ka hoʻololi 'ana i kona wahi. Ke hana ua hai hou a me ka manaʻo ma.

I ka papa kuhikuhiE pomaikai o ka iaoia - i ka loa o ka pae ole i kanaka manao like ka mea hiki ole ke hoʻomaopopo like loa me ka mea,ʻaʻohe kona manaʻo ma-hale.

Kēia hana hiki ke hoohalikeia me ka hope koho o ka Pope. Ua hoʻoholo 'ia i Anonymous koho no ke kolu o ka manawa. Ka mea, ua maopopo ia i na koho ana,ʻaʻole i kekahi o na moho i manawa e e ka "mea maikai i", a hiki hoʻololi i ka manao o ka poe koho. E like me ka hana mau, hiki ole e pau i ke kaʻina hana a kekahi o na moho attains 77 koho. He Logical ke kuhi ana i ka lōʻihi-makahiki nohona forecasting Delphic papa hana like i ka wehewehena o "ʻawelike no ka haukapila."

Social hōʻikeʻia nani. o ka Naauao

Social olelo wanana a hiki ke hana ma ka makemakika hōʻikeʻia nani. Kēia papa hana e leie aku mākou, e noonoo i ka hailona no nā mea e hiki wale mai i loko o kā lākou mea hoʻopili i nā aʻe. Like i loko o ka hihia o ka Delphi ano, loaʻa nō kekahi mau pilikia a me ka lōʻihi-makahiki forecasting. Akā, no ka pomaikai o keia iaoia mea i ke akamai manao, alakaʻiʻia,ʻaʻole wale nō kā lākou mau'ōlelo kūpaʻa, akā, i ka hopena o ka "mīkini"ʻikepili - i keʻano o ke koho no ka wā e hiki mai ana o ka hoʻokolokolo mea.

extrapolation

Ka lanakila - 'ike o ke kumu hoohalike o ka hoʻokolokolo kŰia ma ke kālailai kona mōʻaukala, a e pili ana no kēia mauʻikepili ma ke kaʻina hana o ka forecasting. Social forecasting ma extrapolation - o ka hoʻohana 'ana o ka luna' nā papakuhikuhi i hiki loaʻa waiwai hualoaʻa mai i kumu hoʻomalu,, loa nae pono.

Social olelo wanana a - he pono ka paahana no ka hooponopono ana i ka lawelawe keʻano o ka hanaʻana i loko o nā lima o ka poʻe i ka manawa e ho ololi ia.